AGP Executive Report

Explosives Probe: Lebanese forces seized nearly 800 kilograms of explosives at a checkpoint on the Bekaa–Beirut highway and arrested two men. Reports link the shipment to Hezbollah, though the cargo details remain disputed. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has vowed a thorough investigation; Hezbollah MP Ibrahim al-Moussawi defended the group’s right to self-defense. War Displacement: Hezbollah announced housing aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs, and $12,000 elsewhere, paid over a year. Security Support: The EU approved a three-year mission to advise and train Lebanon’s army and Internal Security Forces, including on border security and counter-smuggling. Public Opinion: A September survey of 800 Shia respondents found 66.4% favor transferring Hezbollah’s weapons to the state, while 63.3% support some form of agreement with Israel. Travel Links: Lebanon welcomed the U.S. decision to lift longstanding restrictions on direct flights between the two countries.

EU Security Mission: President Joseph Aoun welcomed a new three-year EU mission to advise and train Lebanon’s army and Internal Security Forces, including on border security and smuggling. Weapons Probe: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam vowed a thorough investigation after authorities seized a truck carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives near Dahr al-Baidar; the army also reported seizing about 200 kilograms near Hermel after an attempted smuggling from Syria. South Under Fire: Israeli shelling and military movements continued in southern Lebanon. A landmine killed an orchard owner in Froun, while reports also said Israeli fire killed a retired Lebanese soldier. Border Blast: An explosion during a school hike in northern Israel killed a teenager and injured 24. Israeli officials said it likely involved unexploded Hezbollah ordnance, underscoring the danger of leftover munitions near the border. US Flights: Lebanon welcomed Washington’s decision to lift decades-old restrictions on direct flights, a move that could open the way to restored air links.

EU Security Mission: The EU has approved a three-year mission to advise and train Lebanon’s army and Internal Security Forces on border and maritime security, anti-smuggling and internal security. Brussels says it will support state authority, not replace UNIFIL as the peacekeepers prepare to leave. Explosives Probe: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has vowed a thorough investigation after authorities seized a truck carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives, including C-4, allegedly being moved from Baalbek to Beirut’s southern suburbs. The military judiciary has widened its inquiry, while the army reported a separate seizure of about 200 kilograms near the Syrian border. Border Violence: Israeli fire continues in the south; reports say a retired Lebanese soldier was killed, and two people died during an olive harvest. Air Links: Lebanon welcomed Washington’s decision to lift decades-old restrictions on direct flights, clearing a path toward renewed US-Lebanon air service.

South Lebanon: Israeli shelling killed retired Lebanese soldier Ali Abdul Hassan Sweidan as he inspected his land in Yater during the olive harvest. A blast from an unexploded munition also killed a man and injured another near Froun, as Israeli strikes hit several southern towns despite the June framework deal. Lebanon’s Health Ministry puts the death toll since March 2 at about 4,386. Security Concerns: The army seized about 500 kilograms of explosives at a Bekaa checkpoint and arrested two men; reports say one is the son of a Hezbollah official. The seizure has raised fears of possible political violence. UNIFIL’s Future: Lebanon faces uncertainty over international monitoring in the south as UNIFIL’s exit approaches. A planned EU mission would train and support the Lebanese army, but is not expected to replace the peacekeepers. US Flights: President Trump has lifted decades-old restrictions on US-Lebanon flights, clearing a hurdle to restoring direct air links. President Joseph Aoun welcomed the move, though no restart date has been announced.

South Under Fire: Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit several southern towns despite the June US-brokered framework deal. In Froun, a suspected Israeli war remnant exploded as residents picked olives, killing one person and wounding another. Lebanon’s Health Ministry puts the death toll from Israeli attacks since March 2 at 4,386. Security Concerns: Lebanese authorities seized about half a ton of explosives from a car at a Dahr al-Baidar checkpoint and arrested two men. A judicial source said the suspects were Hezbollah members; the investigation is ongoing. UNIFIL’s Future: Lebanon faces growing concern over a security vacuum when UNIFIL withdraws, with no replacement force secured. A planned EU mission is intended to train and support Lebanese security forces, not take over UNIFIL’s field role. US Flights: Washington has lifted decades-old restrictions on direct flights to Lebanon. The US Embassy says the move brings service closer, but no start date has been set pending approvals.

Israeli Attacks: Lebanon’s Health Ministry says 4,386 people have been killed and 12,424 injured since March 2. A drone strike near Hermel wounded six people, while shelling and airstrikes continued in the south. Direct US Flights: President Joseph Aoun welcomed Washington’s lifting of decades-old aviation restrictions, clearing a path for direct flights—but services will not resume immediately as safety and regulatory steps remain. EU Support: The EU is preparing a mission to train and support the Lebanese army as UNIFIL’s future is debated; Lebanon is seeking backing for state control of weapons and an end to Israeli occupation. Trade: Lebanese exports to Iraq rose 67% in the second quarter, reaching about $597 million, led by gold. Basketball: Beirut’s Sagesse opened the Arab club championship with a 91–69 win over Bahrain’s Manama.

Border Escalation: Israeli strikes and shelling hit several southern Lebanese areas on Saturday. A separate drone strike near Hermel wounded six people on Friday, including five Syrians. Israel said it targeted a Syrian operative it accused of planning attacks. US Travel: President Donald Trump revoked decades-old restrictions on direct US flights to Lebanon. Flights will not resume immediately: aviation talks and safety measures are still needed. President Joseph Aoun welcomed the move as a sign of confidence in Lebanon. Security & Diplomacy: EU foreign ministers are expected to consider a proposed support mission for Lebanon on Monday. It would strengthen Lebanese security forces ahead of UNIFIL’s planned withdrawal, not replace the peacekeepers. Separately, reports say two men are under investigation after explosives were found in their car; claims linking them to Hezbollah and a possible plot have not been confirmed. Basketball: Beirut Club meets Kuwait’s Sulaibikhat in the Arab Clubs Championship in Ghazir, with both teams seeking a second group-stage win.

South Lebanon: Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit several areas on Saturday, including Wadi al-Hujair and the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa and Kfar Tebnit. Reports also said Israeli forces moved within 50 metres of a Lebanese Army position near Zawtar al-Gharbiya, despite the June framework agreement. Eastern Lebanon: A drone strike on a vehicle near Hermel wounded six people, including five Syrians and one Lebanese national, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Israel said it targeted a Syrian militant accused of planning attacks. Press Freedom: Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil was killed in an Israeli airstrike, reports said. She had previously received threats but continued reporting from the south. Security and Diplomacy: The EU is preparing a roughly 100-person mission to support Lebanon’s security forces as UNIFIL’s future is debated. Beirut is seeking European backing for army deployment, state control of weapons and an end to the Israeli occupation.

South Lebanon: Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil was killed in an Israeli airstrike, while an Israeli officer died and three soldiers were wounded in a Humvee rollover during operations near the Litani. Reports also said Israeli forces advanced near a Lebanese Army post, as a US-backed framework for Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament remains stalled. EU Mission: The EU is expected to approve a mission of about 100 personnel to support Lebanon’s army and security forces. The contingent would be based mainly in Beirut, not the south, as UNIFIL’s future comes into question. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam linked recovery and reconstruction to reforms, restored sovereignty and state control over decisions of war and peace. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s bloc promised aid for displaced families and criticized the government. Reconstruction and Funds: Washington says possible billions in reconstruction aid would depend on Hezbollah disarmament; US officials also reject reports of fresh Iranian funding to the group, while Hezbollah says assistance is forthcoming. Electricity: Energy Minister Joe Saddi is reportedly considering resignation over delays to promised funding and reforms, after boycotting cabinet sessions.

Southern Front: An Israeli soldier was killed and three wounded when a Humvee overturned during operations in southern Lebanon, the IDF said, as Israeli attacks continue despite a framework deal. UNIFIL reported gunfire hitting its Kfarchouba base; no peacekeepers were hurt. EU Security Mission: The EU plans a roughly 100-person mission to advise and train Lebanon’s army and security forces, mainly in Beirut. Kaja Kallas stressed it would not replace UNIFIL, whose mandate European officials support extending. Beirut is seeking EU backing for an Israeli withdrawal and state control of weapons. Displaced Families: Hezbollah says it is close to starting shelter payments. Reuters reported the group received $200 million from Iran, while Washington disputed the claim. Cost of Living: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam acknowledged families’ mounting bills for generators, fuel, tuition, transport and medicine, and outlined measures on energy, social support, housing and public transport.

EU Security Role: Kaja Kallas said EU member states favor extending UNIFIL’s mandate, due to expire at year’s end, and are preparing a mission to train and advise Lebanon’s army and security forces. She stressed it would not replace the UN force. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri warned against UNIFIL leaving without a successor. Southern Border: Residents of West Zawtar say a US-backed pilot withdrawal has not restored normal life, with Israeli troops still nearby and further pullbacks stalled. UNIFIL also reported small-arms fire hitting a post near Kfarshouba; no one was hurt. State and Sovereignty: President Joseph Aoun said negotiations—not war—are the path to ending hostilities, and accused Israel of failing to meet its commitments. Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi said Lebanon seeks EU backing for state control of weapons and an end to the occupation. Power and Economy: Energy Minister Joe Saddi signed amended agreements advancing two solar projects, while Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says the government is pursuing cheaper electricity and plans loans for household solar systems. Syria Case: NPR and the BBC report that former Syrian general Bassam al-Hassan, wanted over alleged crimes against humanity, is living in Lebanon with US backing, reportedly in connection with efforts to locate journalist Austin Tice.

Southern Lebanon: Reuters reports Israeli troops remain in villages near West Zawtar, where residents hear patrols and see homes demolished. Two months after the first U.S.-backed pilot-zone withdrawal, no further zones have been agreed. Separately, Israel’s KAN says Hezbollah members remain in several pilot areas; the claim has not been independently confirmed. Hezbollah Funding: Two sources say Iran sent $200 million last month to help displaced families. A Hezbollah official says funds were secured, but U.S. officials deny the reported transfer. Border Security: UNIFIL says small-arms fire hit its post near Kfar Shouba, with no casualties. The mission is investigating as its mandate is due to end this year and Lebanon seeks a replacement. Trade and Relief: Beirut and Tripoli ports have joined the IMEC Ports Club, though wider links depend on infrastructure upgrades. South Korean shipping firm HMM is also arranging delivery to Beirut of winter clothing valued at about $1.48 million.

UNIFIL Under Fire: Small-arms rounds struck a UN post near Kfar Shouba on the Blue Line; no peacekeepers were injured. UNIFIL called the shooting unacceptable and opened an investigation, as Lebanon warns against a security vacuum when its mandate ends in December. Aid for Displaced Families: Reuters reports Iran transferred $200 million to Hezbollah last month, with the group planning an initial $3,000 payment for about 50,000 families. A Hezbollah official says funds are secured, but the US State Department disputes the report, calling the claimed cash influx fake. Israeli Positions in the South: Israel is shifting troops to deeper “forward-defense” positions and preparing them for winter, while Lebanese sources report incursions near several border towns. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said decisions on war, peace and national security must rest with state institutions, renewing debate over sovereignty and arms. Power Crisis: Energy Minister Joe Saddi says he will boycott Cabinet sessions until the government acts on the electricity file, while continuing his ministerial duties.

Lebanon–Israel Talks: Lebanese officials are discussing a “synchronized stages” approach to ease U.S. conditions, proposing phased Israeli withdrawals in the south followed by Lebanese Army deployment under international sponsorship. Verification Mechanism: A separate Oct. 20 meeting is set to focus on “verifiable security arrangements,” including a proposed committee to monitor withdrawals and ensure the area south of the Litani is free of armed activity, with steps tied to Israel’s election timeline. Power Crisis: Energy Minister Joe Saddi says Lebanon’s electricity breakdown stems from a long-running generation capacity deficit and misused depositor funds, with the state leaning on private investment and an IFC-led process—though investors demand security guarantees. Ports & Trade: Lebanon’s Beirut and Tripoli ports are set to join the IMEC Ports Club, aiming to plug into a wider trade and connectivity network. Southern Lebanon Security: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem reiterates demands for full Israeli withdrawal, rejecting any U.S. role in arms or policy. Humanitarian Loss: The ICRC mourns Lebanese Red Cross volunteer Youssef Assaf, killed during a rescue mission in South Lebanon.

Lebanon-Israel Talks: Lebanon is floating a “synchronized stages” withdrawal idea, where Israel would pull back from specific southern areas and the Lebanese Army would immediately take over security under international sponsorship, aiming to undercut claims of a “security vacuum.” US Verification Plan: A parallel U.S.-led track would set up a verification committee to confirm the south of the Litani is free of armed presence, monitor withdrawals, expand pilot zones, and link steps to Israel’s election timetable. Hezbollah Stance: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem renewed calls for total, unconditional Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, rejecting U.S. or foreign interference on arms and insisting the resistance has “nothing to give.” Southern Lebanon Security: Israeli forces carried out fresh artillery and drone attacks in areas including Hadatha, Braasheet, Beit al-Siyad and Mansouri, despite the June framework. Humanitarian Toll: The ICRC mourned Lebanese Red Cross volunteer Youssef Assaf killed during a rescue mission in South Lebanon, warning that medical workers and ambulances must be protected. State Authority & Displacement: Speaker Nabih Berri urged displaced residents to delay returning after the ceasefire announcement, stressing safety first. Electricity Crisis: Energy Minister Joe Saddi announced a Cabinet boycott over EDL arrears and exemptions, calling for flexible tariffs tied to fuel prices and action against “theft” and non-technical losses. Trade & Ports: Lebanon’s Beirut and Tripoli ports joined an IMEC Ports Club declaration, aiming to turn regional connectivity into real investment and trade opportunities. Migration Crackdown: Lebanese security arrested nine Syrians over a Cyprus-bound smuggling plot, charging $5,000 per passenger. Regional Context: AFP reports war-weary northern Israelis are reconsidering support for Netanyahu ahead of Oct. 27, citing insecurity and economic strain.

South Lebanon Needs & State Role: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri urged PM Nawaf Salam to move fast on the rising cost of living and to activate tenders for southern residents, after Salam’s latest Nabatieh push on roads, shelter rehab, hospitals, power and water projects—while Salam warned the war’s scale is beyond state capacity and needs UN, US and World Bank financing. Israeli Ground Moves: UNIFIL told AFP that Israeli forces have entered several south Lebanese villages, including Kfar Kila, Houla, Kfar Shouba, Yaroun and Khiam, as Israel seeks deeper positions and a buffer. Lebanon-UK Security Drills: Lebanon and Britain will run three weeks of joint military exercises, Pegasus Cedar 2026, training reconnaissance, urban warfare and helicopter operations with Lebanese forces. Surveillance Fears: A report on “biological tracking” claims modified soil bacteria could transfer onto clothing and be detected later, raising fresh alarm for southern Lebanon. Regional Aviation Pressure: UAE and wider Gulf flight delays and cancellations continued amid rising war tensions, including cancellations affecting Beirut routes. Economy & Reforms: Economy Minister Amer Bisat met an EBRD delegation to discuss governance modernization and support for private sector, industry, renewables and SMEs. Culture & Sports: Lebanese singer Fadel Chaker is set for a Riyadh Season concert after legal steps, while Dubai’s Club 15—founded by Lebanese basketball legend Fadi El Khatib—prepares to open as a major sports and lifestyle hub.