AGP Executive Report

Border Escalation: Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit southern Lebanon on Friday as drones flew over Beirut and its suburbs, with no breakthrough reported in US-hosted Lebanon-Israel military talks. Political Tensions: Cabinet postponed referring the Dahr al-Baidar explosives case to the Judicial Council until the investigation is complete, prompting Lebanese Forces ministers to walk out. Hezbollah-linked sources warned that warrants against its officials could trigger action on the ground. UNIFIL Exit: The planned withdrawal of UN peacekeepers by year’s end is raising fears of a security vacuum in the south, where Israeli attacks continue despite a ceasefire. Culture: Beirut’s Arab International Book Fair drew about 100,000 visitors and 160 publishers, offering a welcome gathering place amid war threats and economic hardship.

Security: Israeli airstrikes and shelling hit multiple towns in southern Lebanon on Thursday, while drones flew over Beirut. No casualty figures were immediately available. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned of further strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and possible territorial seizures if Hezbollah joins an attack on Iran. Explosives Probe: Political talks eased tensions over a seized Hezbollah explosives shipment, but the Cabinet dispute remains unresolved. Lebanese Forces ministers walked out after the case was not referred to the Judicial Council; Justice Minister Adel Nassar says transporting or storing explosives threatens state security. State Authority: President Joseph Aoun urged restraint amid regional tensions, while Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said weapons and decisions of war and peace must remain under state authority. Energy: Qatar is discussing two power plants and a long-term gas supply deal with Lebanon, offering potential relief as energy costs deepen the country’s hardship. Peacekeeping: UNIFIL’s mandate is due to end on December 31, with its withdrawal planned over the following year; the shape of any future UN presence in southern Lebanon remains under discussion.

Border Escalation: Israeli strikes and shelling hit several southern Lebanese towns, while drones flew over Beirut. Israel’s defense minister threatened strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and further land seizures if Hezbollah joins a war with Iran. Explosives Probe: Cabinet tensions sharpened over a shipment of explosives Hezbollah says it owns. Lebanese Forces ministers walked out after the case was not referred to the Judicial Council; Justice Minister Adel Nassar says the investigation is expanding, while Prime Minister Nawaf Salam warned that unauthorized weapons storage and transport threaten public safety. Security and Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun urged restraint and said negotiations are needed to end the war and secure an Israeli withdrawal. Lebanon-Israel military talks are under way in Florida, as officials warn that UNIFIL’s planned departure could leave a security vacuum in the south. Energy and Cost of Living: Qatar is proposing two power plants and a long-term gas supply for Lebanon, as rising fuel costs strain households and push up transport, food and heating expenses.

South Lebanon: Israeli artillery and machine-gun fire hit several towns overnight, with an airstrike also reported near Al-Qantara. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the abduction of a resident from Habbariyeh and asked the Foreign Ministry to raise the case with the UN. Israel-Lebanon Talks: President Joseph Aoun says negotiations are needed to end the war and secure an Israeli withdrawal. The Lebanese army rejected Israeli claims that it had failed to curb Hezbollah activity south of the Litani. Israel’s defense minister threatened strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and further occupation if Hezbollah attacks. Diplomacy: Qatar and France backed efforts to restore Lebanese sovereignty and called for Israeli forces to withdraw; France also plans a conference to support the Lebanese army after Israel’s elections. Energy and Security: Qatar is planning two power plants and a long-term gas deal for Lebanon, while officials seek options ahead of UNIFIL’s planned drawdown.

US-Mediated Talks: Lebanese and Israeli military delegations wrapped up meetings in Florida, with Beirut seeking an end to Israeli attacks and withdrawal from occupied territory. The sides remain divided over how to verify security commitments. Southern Front: President Joseph Aoun says negotiations are the only way to end the war, return displaced residents and rebuild. France plans a conference to support the Lebanese Army after Israel’s elections, while the army rejected Israeli claims that it failed to clear Hezbollah weapons sites south of the Litani. State Authority: A tunnel found in Fanar sparked fears of hidden weapons, but investigators found only basic digging tools; a drug drop site is one possible explanation. Separately, Cabinet is set to consider sending the explosives case to the Judicial Council as two Hezbollah officials face questioning. Economy and Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are working to activate their joint committee. Qatar’s proposed power plants and long-term gas deal could help ease Lebanon’s electricity crisis. Calls to restore state authority also extend to the banking sector, where depositors still face unresolved losses from the financial collapse.

Tampa Talks: Lebanese and Israeli military delegations are meeting under U.S. mediation as Beirut seeks an end to Israeli attacks and disputes claims it has failed to disarm Hezbollah. Lebanon’s army says it completed clearing a site in Kafra on Oct. 16 after pausing work amid Israeli threats. Escalating Threats: Israel’s defense minister threatened strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and further land seizures if Hezbollah attacks, while acknowledging more than 60 villages and 23,000 homes in southern Lebanon have been destroyed. Israeli soldiers were also filmed joking as they rigged a displaced family’s home with explosives. Arab Support: Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy condemned attacks in the south and called for practical support to strengthen Lebanon’s army, help displaced residents return and rebuild. Electricity Plan: Qatar proposes two power plants, a 20-year gas supply deal and renewable-energy projects to ease Lebanon’s chronic power shortages. UNIFIL Drawdown: The mission’s planned withdrawal threatens hundreds of local jobs and businesses in the south; about 400 Lebanese staff work for the force.

Tampa Talks: Lebanese and Israeli military delegations met under US mediation, with Beirut pressing for an end to Israeli attacks and a verification mechanism to support army deployment. Expectations for a breakthrough remain low. Escalation: Israel threatened further advances around Nabatieh and the Litani River, and strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs if attacked. An Israeli strike also hit Nabatieh al-Fawqa. Israel accused the Lebanese army of failing to clear a Hezbollah weapons site; the army rejected the claims as an attempt to undermine its credibility. UNIFIL’s Future: With the peacekeeping force’s mandate set to end on December 31, President Joseph Aoun is seeking an extension or another arrangement to prevent a security vacuum. Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy toured the south and called for stronger support for Lebanon’s army and state institutions. Power Relief: Qatar is proposing two 825-megawatt power plants and a 20-year LNG supply deal, a potential boost for Lebanon’s struggling electricity sector.

US-Mediated Talks: Lebanese and Israeli military delegations are due to meet in Tampa on Tuesday. Beirut will press for a halt to Israeli attacks and arrangements for the south, while rejecting direct military coordination with Israel and seeking continued international peacekeeping. South Under Fire: Israeli airstrikes, drone fire and shelling hit several areas across southern Lebanon on Monday, with no casualties immediately reported. Power Plan: Qatar’s proposal calls for two 825-megawatt plants, a 20-year LNG supply deal and renewable energy projects. It still needs approval, and financing terms remain under discussion. Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun told the Arab League chief Lebanon remains committed to diplomacy and called for support for the country’s sovereignty and recovery. Aoun also said Lebanese are looking forward to the return of Saudi visitors and the resumption of Saudi flights.

Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun told Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy that Lebanon remains committed to a diplomatic solution, while accusing Israel of daily violations of the framework agreement. Fahmy pledged support and plans to visit the south. Lebanese and Israeli military delegations are due to meet with US officials in Tampa on Oct. 20; Beirut says it will press for an end to Israeli attacks. Southern Front: Israeli fire and demolitions were reported across southern Lebanon on Monday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would keep troops in a southern security zone, saying he does not trust Beirut to disarm Hezbollah. Power Crisis: Qatar’s proposed energy package includes two power plants within three years and a 20-year LNG supply deal, alongside renewables and grid upgrades. The plan still needs government approval and financing arrangements. Security Tensions: Aoun ordered tighter security and weapons confiscation as tensions rise over explosives seized by Lebanese authorities and claimed by Hezbollah. The army said a 13-metre tunnel found in Fanar contained no weapons and arrested a suspected digger. UNIFIL Drawdown: France warned against a security vacuum when UNIFIL’s mandate ends this year, calling for a new international framework to support Lebanon’s army.

Israel-Lebanon Talks: Lebanese and Israeli military delegations are due to meet in Tampa on October 20, with Beirut seeking an end to Israeli attacks and withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Lebanese officials say Israeli strikes and troop movements have breached arrangements in a pilot area; Israel says it will make no concessions and has reinforced its border forces. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says decisions on war and peace belong to the state, as Hezbollah challenges the seizure of explosives it claims were intended for attacks on Israel. Hezbollah’s payments to displaced families are also adding pressure on a government trying to curb the group’s influence. Southern Lebanon: Residents fear Israeli fire is cutting off village roads and access to farmland, while Lebanon seeks French help to avert a security vacuum when UNIFIL’s mandate ends. Economy and Energy: Qatar is advancing an electricity project that could supply up to 3,000 megawatts. Bank Audi reports a modest third-quarter improvement, but forecasts a 7.5% economic contraction this year and says an IMF agreement remains difficult.

Israel Talks: Lebanon will send a military delegation to U.S.-backed talks with Israel in Florida on Oct. 20, pressing for an end to Israeli attacks and withdrawal from occupied areas. President Joseph Aoun says continued strikes and restrictions are blocking the army’s deployment in the south. State Authority: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says decisions on war and peace belong to the state alone, as security forces step up deployments in Beirut amid tensions over explosives seized from a shipment linked to Hezbollah. The group has demanded the explosives’ return and warned against measures targeting it. Southern Security: Israeli forces have shelled Hadatha and fired on routes around border villages, disrupting residents’ access to farmland and medical care. Aoun has asked France to help prevent a security vacuum when UNIFIL’s mandate ends in December; Speaker Nabih Berri is urging international pressure on Israel to implement Resolution 1701. Economy and Diplomacy: Qatar is advancing plans to fund and operate a major electricity-sector project, while the IMF says talks with Lebanon have made significant progress. Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy has arrived in Beirut for discussions on stability, recovery and support for state institutions.

Southern Front: Israeli forces shelled Mansouri and demolished buildings in Khiam, both near the so-called Yellow Line; reports gave no immediate details on casualties or damage. Tampa Talks: Lebanon will send a military delegation to US-backed talks with Israel on Oct. 20 to demand an end to attacks. President Joseph Aoun says Israeli strikes, demolitions and restrictions on farmers violate the framework agreement and hinder army deployment in the south. UNIFIL Drawdown: As the peacekeeping mission’s mandate ends Dec. 31, residents of Ibl al-Saqi fear losing security, local business and longstanding ties. Aoun is seeking an extension or another international presence to prevent a security vacuum. Power Sector: Qatar and Lebanon are nearing an electricity deal that Doha would fund and operate without upfront cost to the treasury, with possible power links to Syria and Iraq.

US Talks: Lebanon will send a military delegation to Tampa on Oct. 20 to press for an end to Israeli attacks, President Joseph Aoun said. Israeli strikes and shelling continued across the south on Saturday, with no immediate casualty reports. Security Tensions: Prosecutors are seeking the arrest of two Hezbollah officials in a case involving a truck carrying explosives seized en route to Beirut. Hezbollah says the materials were intended for use against Israel; the justice minister warned that moving explosives outside state authority threatens national security. The army deployed in Beirut after overnight protests and a standoff during a judicial raid. UNIFIL’s Future: French ministers arrived for talks on security and reforms as the UN peacekeeping mission prepares to leave at year’s end. UN officials say a continued third-party presence could help prevent escalation. Power and Economy: Qatar and Lebanon say they are close to a major electricity project, while the IMF reports progress toward a support program but says more work is needed. Airport Safety: A UN aviation review found certification and safety gaps at Beirut airport that could delay the return of direct US flights.

Electricity Deal: Qatar and Lebanon are moving toward a major power-sector overhaul, with Doha expected to finance and operate the project without upfront cost to the treasury. LBCI sources say supply could rise from 300 megawatts within six months to 2,000 in two years and 3,000 in three, alongside gas deliveries and grid upgrades. Diplomatic Push: President Joseph Aoun is urging Qatar and other partners to press Israel to halt attacks in southern Lebanon and withdraw from occupied territory. Lebanese officials are also stepping up contacts to keep the country out of a wider regional conflict. UN Presence: Lebanon wants a UN role to replace UNIFIL when its mandate ends this year. The UN peacekeeping chief warned that incidents along the Blue Line could spiral without a third-party buffer. IMF Talks: Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says discussions with Lebanon have made significant progress toward a program, but more work remains.

Qatar Visit: Doha says it will finance, build and operate a project to modernise Lebanon’s failing electricity system, with QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies also planning a solar plant. Qatar pledged support for the army and reconstruction, while President Joseph Aoun urged it to press Israel to halt attacks and withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory. Hezbollah and State Authority: Hezbollah acknowledged ownership of explosives seized by Lebanese authorities, saying they were intended to fight Israel, and demanded their return. The dispute sharpened after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Aoun not to hand them back. Separately, police completed a raid on a warehouse of suspect medicines near Beirut despite reported obstruction by Hezbollah supporters; the group said officers had breached security coordination procedures and denied links to the warehouse. Financial Pressure: Lebanon revoked Bank Saderat’s operating license amid US pressure over alleged links to Hezbollah financing. Travel: A UN aviation review found certification and safety shortcomings at Beirut airport, potentially delaying plans to resume direct US flights.

Hezbollah Arms Seizure: Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah acknowledged the group owned the 780kg explosives seized en route to Beirut, saying they were intended for use against Israel and denying an assassination plot. He demanded the explosives be returned; Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has vowed accountability. US-Lebanon Talks: Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged President Joseph Aoun not to return the explosives and called for direct military communication with Israel. Aoun asked Washington to press Israel to stop strikes in the south and let farmers reach their land. Qatar Visit: Qatar’s prime minister arrived in Beirut with a proposed plan to address Lebanon’s electricity crisis and discuss economic cooperation. Banking: Banque du Liban revoked Bank Saderat Iran’s local license, citing efforts to shield the banking sector from financial and regulatory risks.**